The University of Lleida (UdL) has contributed to validating two key tools for predicting cardiovascular risk in an international study. The research confirms the usefulness of the Prevent and Score2 models in diverse populations.
The work is published in the journal Nature Medicine and includes the participation of researcher José Manuel Valdivielso, from the Biomedical Research Institute of Lleida (IRBLleida). The analysis is part of the Chronic Kidney Disease Prognosis Consortium (CKD-PC).
Six million data points support the accuracy of the scales
The scientific team examined information from more than 6.4 million people from different regions of the planet. This magnitude allows the results to be extrapolated to very varied clinical contexts.
During a mean follow-up of 5.1 years, records showed a high incidence of cardiac problems. Nearly 294,000 cardiovascular events were detected according to the Prevent definition. For its part, the Score2 model identified more than 258,000 cases.
José Manuel Valdivielso, head of the center's translational vascular and renal research group, highlights the consistency of the findings. The expert assures that these instruments maintain solid performance in different population groups.
"It demonstrates that these tools maintain solid and consistent performance in very different populations. This reinforces their usefulness for early identification of people at high cardiovascular risk and moving towards more personalized and precise prevention. We are sure that these results will change current clinical guidelines." - José Manuel Valdivielso, head of the vascular and renal translational research group at IRBLleida
International validation provides confidence to healthcare professionals and public health systems. According to Valdivielso, this process allows for anticipating the disease by correctly identifying who is most likely to develop it in the coming years.
Albuminuria improves detection in gray areas
One of the main advances lies in the incorporation of kidney health parameters. The presence of albumin in urine, known as albuminuria, increases the predictive capacity of both tools.
This marker is easy and cheap to measure. Its inclusion is crucial for refining the diagnosis in patients with intermediate risk. This group accounts for almost half of cardiovascular events but often remains without adequate treatment due to being in a gray area.
The Prevent and Score scales allow us to distinguish within this group which people have a truly higher risk. This facilitates the application of preventive measures and appropriate treatments before the event occurs.
"These two predictive scales have great discriminatory power in patients with intermediate risk. This group accounts for almost half of cardiovascular events and, by being in a gray area, often does not receive preventive treatments or adequate follow-up. Prevent and Score allow us to distinguish which individuals in this group truly have a higher risk and, consequently, give us the opportunity to apply preventive measures and appropriate treatments." - José Manuel Valdivielso, head of the vascular and renal translational research group at IRBLleida
Chronic kidney disease is gaining prevalence worldwide. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that in 2040 it will be the fifth leading cause of death worldwide. This pathology notably increases cardiovascular risk.
Many apparently healthy people present risk factors that go unnoticed in routine check-ups. Early prediction can prevent heart attacks or strokes by detecting these silent signs.
The study opens the door to an update of current clinical protocols. The integration of renal data in cardiovascular evaluation represents a firm step towards more precise and personalized preventive medicine.