The World Meteorological Organization has issued a climate alert for the coming months. There is a 40% probability that the El Niño phenomenon will cause a widespread increase in temperatures.
Current climate models point to the emergence of a Super El Niño between May and July. This event would directly affect the planet's tropical zones, including regions of India, South America, and Africa.
African heat conditions the Mediterranean
Joaquim Ballabrera, a researcher at the CSIC, analyzes the possible atmospheric consequences of this warming. he points out that there could be an atmospheric impact with more heat in North Africa which would affect our coasts.
"it looks more like we'll have an atmospheric event, with more heat than, in North Africa, could heat the south of the Mediterranean." - Joaquim Ballabrera, CSIC researcher
This thermal increase in the southern waters alters the usual meteorological dynamics. The interaction between a warmer sea and cold air masses at high altitudes generates instability.
Said atmospheric configuration opens the door to a scenario of greater precipitation during the autumn. The key lies in the temporal coincidence of these opposing factors.
Infallible forecast at the end of summer
Some indicators place the intensity of the phenomenon between moderate and very strong in the traditional areas. El Niño consists of the unusual warming of the waters of the central and eastern equatorial Pacific.
It is a regular natural cycle. it happens in consecutive periods of between two and seven years with effects that last from nine to 12 months.
The current uncertainty about the exact impact on our region has an expiration date. Ballabrera indicates that by the end of summer, an infallible forecast can be made of how this year's autumn will be conditioned by El Niño.
The wait until that date leaves the population exposed to climatic volatility. Only time will clear up doubts about the real intensity of the autumn rains.