June will start in Catalonia and Barcelona with a forecast of above-average temperatures, in a context where the astronomical summer will not even begin until June 21, with the solstice. The NOAA seasonal models and the weekly models from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts point in the same direction for the entire month.
The main paradox comes from the western Mediterranean. While the calendar still places the official start of summer at the end of the month, the NOAA seasonal model predicts higher than usual temperatures in an area where the sea water already registers values typical of July.
The ECMWF maintained the heat in the first week and in the week of June 8
The European center's weekly model places the first week of June with higher than usual temperatures in a large part of Europe and North Africa, a pattern that also includes Catalonia. Barcelona is within this signal of warm anomaly.
Afterwards, the trend does not disappear. The ECMWF maintains this warm bias for the week of June 8 and also for the rest of the month, although some scenarios introduce nuances in the short term.
In that more immediate window, the main caution of the forecast appears. Some models show dispersion and point to a containment of heat during the second half of next week, so the daily evolution can still be adjusted.
Rain pointed to normal values except in the northeast of Catalonia
In precipitation, the NOAA seasonal models depict a June with normal records for a month that is already usually dry. This moves away, for now, a broad signal of clearly above-average rainfall.
The territorial nuance is again introduced by the European center. Its model only marks a clear positive indicator of precipitation in the northeast of Catalonia during the first week of June.
This contrast between generalized heat and rain without major excesses fits with other long-range projections for the season, although meteorological agencies insist that these types of tools require caution due to their margin of error.
AEMET gave a 60% probability of a very warm summer in 2026
AEMET has published an advance for the summer of 2026 that reinforces the warm signal. Its forecast assigns a 60% probability of a very warm summer and a 50% probability of it being rainy.
However, seasonal models have limited reliability and their behavior can only be verified at the end of the analyzed period. The final balance for June will confirm whether the warm anomaly predicted for Catalonia and Barcelona ends up prevailing during the month.