Girona will reach the last two matchdays of La Liga outside the relegation zone, but still without mathematical permanence secured. Míchel's team is fifteenth with 40 points, only one place above the red zone marked by Mallorca.
The paradox of the final stretch is that the team cannot go down this Sunday under any scenario and, at the same time, is still forced to look at several combinations because it has not yet certified salvation. Four points in their last two games are enough to avoid any calculations, regardless of what their rivals do.
Girona depends on itself with a visit to the Metropolitano and the closing at Montilivi
The calendar leaves the Catalan team with a trip to the Metropolitano and a final home game against Elche at Montilivi. That margin keeps Girona in a better position than other direct rivals, although still without a definitive cushion.
After the draw against Real Sociedad, Míchel summarized the scenario in one sentence. The coach recalled that the result was not the best, but it was useful to maintain control of the situation.
"The draw is not the best result, but it is good because we continue to depend on ourselves. We will need three or four more points, let's see if we can get all six" - Míchel, Girona coach
The simplest calculation involves earning four of the six pending points. If it does, Girona will secure mathematical permanence without needing to pay attention to the results of Valencia, Sevilla, Osasuna, Espanyol, Alavés, Elche, Mallorca or Levante.
It can also secure salvation on the penultimate matchday. To do so, it needs to win at the Metropolitano, for Elche to lose to Getafe, and for the match between Levante and Mallorca not to end in a draw.
Nine teams are still pending and the Levante-Mallorca duel conditions many calculations
Nine teams have not yet certified permanence. They are Valencia, Sevilla, Osasuna, Espanyol, Girona, Alavés, Elche, Mallorca and Levante, while Athletic and Rayo Vallecano are already mathematically saved.
Valencia and Sevilla are closer, as they need one point. Valencia must play against Real Sociedad and Barça, and Sevilla faces its last two games against Real Madrid and Celta.
Osasuna and Espanyol, both with 42 points, face each other at El Sadar and need two points to be saved. If that match ends in a draw, Espanyol would have the advantage due to the head-to-head goal average.
Alavés, also with 40 points, would resolve their situation with a win and a draw. If they only add three points, their fate would be tied to the results of Girona, Elx, Mallorca, and Llevant.
The case of Elx crosses directly with that of Girona. The team from Elche needs to win both of their matches to depend on themselves, and the last of them will be precisely in Montilivi.
Furthermore, Llevant and Mallorca, now in relegation spots, play each other at the Ciutat de València. The winner will improve their starting position for the final matchday, and the loser will be more exposed.
Combinations change a lot between 43, 42, 41, or 40 points
If Girona beats Elx and reaches 43 points, they would be saved except for a very specific chain of results. In that scenario, Alavés would have to add at least four points, Llevant and Mallorca would have to draw, and both would have to win their last match afterward, in addition to Osasuna and Espanyol not ending up below or tied in a favorable position for Girona.
With two draws and 42 points, salvation would require at least two rivals to end up below or tied in a favorable situation. It would be key then that Elx does not beat Getafe before visiting Montilivi.
The line becomes even more complicated with 41 points. In that case, Girona would need Elx to lose against Getafe, Alavés to add a maximum of one point, and the loser of Llevant vs. Mallorca not to win on the final matchday.
The tightest scenario appears if the team adds nothing in the two matches they have left. They would only retain their category if Alavés loses both of their games and the loser of Llevant vs. Mallorca also falls in their last match.