May 1st will arrive with unstable weather on the Iberian Peninsula and with an atmosphere far from the pattern most typical of the beginning of warm weather. The forecast points to cloudy skies and showers and thunderstorms in the eastern half of the peninsula and in the Cantabrian area, as well as some occasional showers in the Balearic Islands and Galicia.
Wednesday with rain from the first hour and warnings for intense rainfall
This Wednesday, a predominance of cloudy skies is expected for a good part of the day, except in the eastern third, where the day will be somewhat clearer. The rains will start from the first hour, with showers and storms in regions of the center, the west, and in areas of the Cantabrian Sea.
As the day progresses, especially from the central hours, precipitation will tend to become widespread over a large part of the territory. The Mediterranean coast and the extreme south will remain on the sidelines, in principle, where rain is less likely.
During the second half of the day, the episode may gain intensity. The forecast places the most adverse phenomena in Galicia, northeastern Andalusia, Castilla y León, Extremadura, Castilla la Mancha, and Madrid, with locally heavy rainfall accompanied by thunderstorms, hail, and very strong wind gusts.
Aemet has activated yellow warnings for rain in Andalusia, Extremadura, Navarre, and the Basque Country. It also maintains orange warnings in Aragon, Castile and León, Castile-La Mancha, Madrid, and La Rioja due to the intensity of the rainfall.
That orange level is activated when accumulations are forecast to exceed 30 liters per square meter in one hour. The meteorological agency also warns that the localized intensity of the rain may favor possible floods and the falling of branches or objects.
Uneven temperatures by zone
In parallel, temperatures will rise in the Balearic Islands, Melilla, the peninsular southeast, and the Cantabrian region. In contrast, they will fall on the Atlantic slope and in areas of the center and west of the Peninsula.
Thursday with a partial improvement, although instability does not disappear completely
Looking ahead to Thursday, the forecast points to a trend towards stabilization. The early hours will continue to be marked by very cloudy skies and the possibility of occasional showers or thunderstorms in the northern part of the peninsula.
From midday the sky could open up over a large part of the territory. Even so, in the northern mountain systems and in the eastern sierras, showers and storms are still expected, with the possibility of them being locally strong. For that day, the yellow advisories for rain intensity will remain active in Andalusia and Castilla la Mancha.
Instability may return during the holiday
The situation will not be closed with the improvement on Thursday. Instability could reappear on Labor Day, with abundant cloudiness and new precipitation in different parts of the country. For that day, a thermal rise is also forecast in a large part of the territory, except in the eastern third of the peninsula and in the Balearic Islands.
The forecast for the holiday weekend is even more uncertain due to the passage of a trough, associated with an episode of atmospheric instability. This type of situation is usually linked to the rise of warm and humid air masses and can lead to storms, intense precipitation, a drop in temperatures, and an increase in cloudiness.