The price of natural gas in the TTF market of the Netherlands has reached its highest level since March 2025 and yesterday closed at 53.605 dollars per megawatt hour. The accumulated rise in the last two days is 50%. This increase already has an impact on cost forecasts for households in Barcelona, Girona and Tarragona.
Increases in gas and electricity bills for Catalan homes
According to Sergio Soto, energy expert at Roams, the gas bill could become up to 18% more expensive and the electricity bill up to 17% in the coming months. In a home with an average monthly consumption of 660 kWh, the gas bill would go from the current 49-51 euros to 58-60 euros if the next review of the regulated tariff reflects the international increase. This would mean up to 9 euros more per month for many families.
In the case of electricity, an average home with 290 kWh per month and 3.45 kW of contracted power could see its bill increase by about 12 euros, going from 63 to 75 euros per month. The impact will be especially noticeable in homes with greater dependence on gas for heating and hot water.
Oil and fuels also rise
The barrel of oil has exceeded 80 dollars, with increases between 8% and 10%. Before this escalation, gasoline averaged 1.47 euros per liter and diesel at 1.43 euros. Now, a crude oil price increase of between 3% and 8% could place gasoline in a range of 1.51 to 1.58 euros per liter, which would mean increases of up to 9% since the beginning of the bombings by the United States and Israel on Iran.
"The gas bill could increase up to 18%, and the electricity one, up to 17%" - Sergio Soto, Roams
Global risks and supply in Catalonia
The European Central Bank warns that a prolonged escalation of the conflict in the Middle East, together with possible disruptions in energy supply, could cause a significant rebound in inflation in the eurozone and a notable contraction in economic activity. The Spanish Gas Association (Sedigas) considers a closure of the Strait of Hormuz unlikely, although it recognizes that the mere possibility already affects prices.
Sources from the gas sector insist that the main risk is not so much availability as price, which is global and affects us equally. Gas from Gulf countries represents around 8% of the European Union's imports and in the Spanish case only accounts for 1.5%. Spain's main gas supply comes from the United States and Algeria, which together account for around 70%.
Forecasts and response capacity in Spain
The Spanish Fuel Industry Association (AICE) points out that making forecasts is very difficult and will depend on the duration and intensity of the conflict in the Middle East. AICE emphasizes that Spain has the most flexible and competitive refining system in the European Union, which allows for a high diversification of origins and a greater capacity for adaptation in the face of possible international supply crises.